Du Xiang wan: some thoughts on nuclear power development strategy in China

Release time:2016/6/22 8:20:55

Chinas energy structure will undergo three stages of development
At present, Chinas energy structure is mainly fossil energy (90%) above the stage. If the proportion of non-fossil energy more than 10% as a symbol of into the pluralistic structure, is our country in 2015 entered the stage of energy diversity structure before and after.
At this stage of the early decades, fossil fuels will continue to dominate, but years of coal and oil consumption sum of absolute continues for a period of time (about 20 years or so) increased and reached a historic peak, will slowly decrease. The change trend of inevitability is decided by three reasons: one is the environment of the problems of coal, oil, must be controlled; 2 it is more fundamental reason lies in the coal, oil is not easy to regeneration; 3 it is clean (including renewable energy, nuclear energy and natural gas) alternative capacity will gradually increase, proportion of primary energy structure in China will gradually increase. This diverse structure phase lasts for about one hundred years or so, and then enter the third stage of non-fossil energy is given priority to, are the symbols of the new stage of fossil energy will account for over 90% of the total energy at a time.
Involving a century later, it is difficult to quantitative said. Talking about this for one hundred years, however, "three stages" of energy structure, the strategic significance is that it can make our qualitative judgment from the direction of the trend of growth and decline of the all kinds of energy, so as to improve the stability of the strategic planning and policy making.
Including unconventional gas, natural gas, for example, belong to a clean fossil energy, from the resources and development potential, should become the focus of the energy development in China and one of the highlights. But in terms of quantitative, even by efforts to the middle of this century, the supply of natural gas than it is now doubled even twice, only accounted for a total energy of the teens. By then, it will become a green energy pillar.
But, cant just rely on natural gas to replace coal and oil, must be combined with the contribution of renewable energy and nuclear energy. Certainly, in multivariate phase structure, gas will has play an important role in improving the energy structure, but it and the development of renewable energy and nuclear energy are not mutually exclusive. Three joint efforts, a cannot little, also is expected to make clean energy in Chinas primary energy structure in 2050 accounted for half (study of the Chinese academy of engineering), and to further increase. Rather than fossil fuels as the main stage, must rely on renewable energy and nuclear energy of the two together can come early and stable development.
Human beings cannot abandon nuclear must tame of nuclear energy
Non-fossil energy including renewable energy and nuclear energy. Renewable energy sources such as solar energy, wind energy, biomass energy in solar energy can be seen as general. And solar energy comes from nuclear power, is the fusion in the sun a form of energy. Can say without nuclear power, there is no human, human and it becomes attached to the nuclear energy naturally.
On earth, on the other hand, a controlled nuclear power development, broadly experienced by the use of nuclear fission can be used to fusion can two stage, at present is the use of nuclear fission can, and the future of nuclear fusion power plant will provide human can sustainable development of nuclear energy, become a controlled nuclear power. From the above two point, human beings cannot abandon nuclear.
At this stage there are practical significance is that nuclear fission can. During the course of its development for decades, have occurred at three mile island and chernobyl and fukushima three big accident. Although far less than the number of death from nuclear accidents of coal mine accidents and traffic accidents, but due to the nuclear accident has certain aftereffect and diffusivity, every accident increased concern for the safety of nuclear power, even make people talk about nuclear, and momentum to bring the negative impact to the development of nuclear power. After fukushima, countries such as Germany, Switzerland announced denuclearisation, but refuse to check in these countries has a little influence on the global nuclear power of the world.
Again were evaluated on the safety of their nuclear power in the United States, the United States nuclear tube will evaluate conclusion is: the sequence of events, like fukushima could not have happened in the United States. Therefore, nuclear power units in service continues to run, and continue the plant life extension and the examination and approval of new nuclear plants. After the fukushima accident in our country, in a timely manner to carry out the nuclear safety inspection. Test results on the one hand must plant in our country have to serious accidents prevention and mitigation capacity, cope with the extreme external events have certain safety margin, security risks under control, at the same time, points out that to fully analyzes the lessons of all nuclear accidents, to further strengthen nuclear safety measures, to improve and enhance the level of security.
Britain, France, Russia and South Korea, India and other countries and the international atomic energy agency is also analyzed to fukushima, again were evaluated on the safety of nuclear power, to make a clear conclusion, confirmed to continue to develop the policy of nuclear power. The basic pattern in the development of nuclear power is stable.
This strategic stability, the profound reason has the following three aspects: first, the discovery and understanding of nuclear power is the 20th century one of the greatest scientific achievements in human beings. Humans since getting to know the great potential and value of nuclear power, it is impossible to lock it in the drawer, will try to make the human to tame tools, not harness nuclear power is the real danger. Second, the practice have proved that nuclear fission can be to harness and control. By the end of 2010, a total of 441 global operation of nuclear fission reactors, a total of 375 million kilowatts, annual output accounted for 15% of global electricity. 30 countries with nuclear power has 14000 years of operating experience. Practice has proved that fission nuclear power station can be done safely. Third, three accident respectively from the perspective of internal and external risks different provided rich experience and lessons and Revelations of the complement each other, deepen peoples understanding of nuclear safety. This shows that the analysis of the nuclear accident, to know, and every nuclear accident has brought the nuclear safety technology and the improvement of nuclear safety management level. Is necessarily a tame nuclear power in practice constantly summarize and improve, improvement of process. Tame nuclear power, to ensure safety, it is human historical mission and responsibility.
In one hundred for slowly but surely
Nuclear power is competitive in the strategic comes from the fact that it has irreplaceable advantages: it is the energy of high energy density, stable and efficient power output; It is a clean, low carbon, environmentally friendly energy; The advantages of the show is on the basis of nuclear power can do security and premise. Nuclear energy and renewable energy development in China is to gradually replace fossil fuels, and requiring the high proportion of alternative must eventually develop into a considerable scale. At the same time, there are many factors of nuclear power is a science and technology industry, and its security and the scale of development is bound to lead to various progress in the field of science, technology and engineering. For countries, it is a big take advantage the commanding heights of science and technology strategy, is also an important symbol of an innovative country.
Has been running with 15 nuclear power units in China, installed 12.57 million kw, generations of nuclear power are outstanding efforts, to maintain good safety record. This is not only the foundation of development, is also one of the according to confidence. Nuclear power accounted for less than 2% at present in our country power, has a great potential for development. In the field of this strategy will contend for, maintain the stability of the guidelines and policies and sustainability is very important.
Historically, nuclear power enterprise in our country is still very young, at the initial stage of development. Need to clearly recognize that Chinas nuclear power basic research is weak, insufficient technical reserves, the long-term development goals and a roadmap of argument is not enough in-depth, each link of the whole industry chain development has not been coordinated with and supported, the development of nuclear power and the legal system and management system needs to be improved. In a firm development of nuclear energy at the same time, the need to strengthen the risk awareness, efforts to strengthen all aspects of the foundation, there is a plan, "one hundred" slow and steady state of mind and arrangement. "Dont the great leap forward" opinion is right. In the history of the development of our country, and have not had errors caused by the calm, steady development, but an avid "great leap forward" for the nations disastrous profound lessons. The development of nuclear power has so far in China is more healthy. Central proposed, to seek improvement in stability of the national economy, the development of nuclear energy in the future should also is such, therefore, need to make a series of work.
A, earnestly implement the safety check all corrective measures proposed, enhance the level of nuclear safety culture accomplishment and; Research and develop more nuclear safety standards, from site selection, design, choice of DuiXing, construction, operation, management and so on each link to ensure the safety, improve the ability of prevention or mitigation of accident, make the potential risk of radioactive release is controlled.
Second, the science develop nuclear power development strategy in our country, and under the guidance of the strategic adjustment and develop nuclear power development planning and implementation roadmap and the aim of specific measures. Nuclear energy research group from the Chinese academy of engineering proposal, installed in 2015, about 2015 kw planning, on the basis of nuclear power operation capacity up to 60 million in China in 2020 ~ 70 million kw, construction of about 30 million kilowatts, to provide a reference for the research and decision-making. To further achieve the goal of more large-scale nuclear power and schedule, the relevant units and experts for some quantitative research and the suggestion, although there are differences in each individual estimate, but have one thing in common, namely the scale and schedule to match and the availability of uranium resources. There are several ways to get the uranium resource, can completely through scientific research and analysis of the situation, the possibility of technical feasibility, market, supply security, economy, and the ways to raise the utilization ratio of uranium resources, get more understanding of the purpose, and make corresponding r&d and formulation of policies and measures, is established on the basis of sufficient scientific reasoning.
Three, coastal and inland nuclear power stations are to be safe. The strict design standard determination of inland nuclear power station, and it is necessary for stricter emissions constraints. On the choice of site must make the argument more fully, especially to avoid the earthquake zone and the stability of water availability should be highly valued. Europe and the United States 60% of nuclear motor form in inland, The United States 104 reactors in operation, and 104 in inland; Can fully absorb the experience of our country.
Four, about nuclear power for the long-term development of technical route, involve the issue of how to develop after thermal reactor. Launched in China experimental fast reactor, but the development strategy of fast reactor is unclear, what commercial fast reactor technology, the post-processing technology, how to choose other DuiXing (including fission, fusion energy mix pile, small nuclear reactor, nuclear reactor, etc.) how prospects... These problems, should be more research, more. Related to this is, need to strengthen the basic research related to nuclear power, such as related to reactor quality and life of materials science research, new concepts, new technology, new reactor technology research, research of extracting uranium from seawater, etc. Scale of Chinas future nuclear power may be the worlds largest, it must be based on the first, in turn, and reliable basis of science and technology.
Five, the separation of waste - and the problems in the disposition of nuclear waste transmutation technology, need to early prepare for research and engineering technology. High-level radioactive waste geological disposal, must maintain a long-term and biosphere isolation, avoid the harm to environment. On the basis of the existing work, we should strengthen the research and deployment.
Six, nuclear energy is the national behavior, must be better geography and perfect management system and mechanism. Nuclear energy is the fundamental purpose of the well-being of the people, the popularization of science and public participation to institutionalization, normalization, and support to win the confidence of the general public is very important.
(this article "in Chinas nuclear power", 2012, 3)
Note: Du Xiang wan, Chinese academy of engineering, a former vice President of the Chinese academy of engineering. The deputy director of the national energy consultant.